By Vicky Boyd
Editor

Hot, hot hot.

That's how apple growers in the Northeast described this year's growing season.

Although some areas, such as Wayne County, New York, received ample rain, other areas to the south received less-than-average precipitation. As a result, some apple varieties may be a size smaller.

They presented their local overviews of the season at the U.S. Apple Association's recent market outlook conference in Chicago.

"We're seeing high Brix due to the heat," says Jim Allen, president of the Fishers-based New York Apple Association. "It's a very flavorful crop."

Allen was referring to the heatwave that gripped the Northeast in July with triple-digit temperatures in some areas.

John Rice of Rice Fruit of Gardners, Pa., says most varieties are seven to 10 days ahead of average because of the heat.

He's also seeing smaller sizes because of the drought.

"Size is down from last year, where last year was a big crop with exception size," he says.

The heat also is affecting color, with some growers reporting red varieties that never truly turned red.

Craig Kahlke, an Extension tree fruit specialist with Cornell University in Lockport, N.Y., says his maturity testing hasn't found any heat-induced reduction in pressures. But he and others say they anticipate a lot of growers using ReTain, a plant growth regulator designed to help prevent fruit drop and hold fruit on trees.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts apple production of 26 million 42-pound bushels for the 2010-11 marketing year, which began Aug. 1.

If that proves true, it would be the 19th largest on record.

USApple asks grower members for their opinions and then develops its own forecast.

The Vienna, Va.-based association predicts growers will harvest 222 million bushels.

For the 2009 marketing year, the USDA predicted 241 million bushels, and USApple forecast 236 million bushels. The actual harvest, as reported by the USDA in mid-July, was 235 million bushels.

The margin of error, says Mark Seetin, USApple director of regulatory and industry affairs, is just two-thirds of an apple per tree for the USApple forecast and three apples per tree for USDA's.

Accoding to the USDA's 2010 forecast, production in New York will be down 17 percent from 2009 and Michigan will be down 53 percent. But Washington, the nation's largest apple producer, will be up 5 percent.

USApple predicts New York will produce 27 million bushels, or 18 percent fewer apples than last year, and Michigan will produce 15.5 million bushels, or 43 percent fewer than last year.

In addition, the association forecasts that Washington will produce 133 million bushels, or 3 percent more than last year.